NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

After having another subpar week with my picks last week(I went 6-9 against the spread) I am at 84-91 for the season. I have to crank these out(along with all my previews for this week) extra early(or on time) because of the 3 games we have on Thanksgiving this week. As usual spreads are from footballocks.com

Thanksgiving Games

Chicago +7 OVER @Detroit- Detroit has struggled so mightily on offense(24 points or less in every game since week 2 is the popular stat here) I just can’t lay this many points with them, despite how crappy the Bears have been.

@Dallas -3 Philadelphia- The Eagles have beaten the Titans, Texans and Panthers handily with Mark Sanchez at the helm and were destroyed by the Packers. I don’t know if the Eagles will get quite obliterated by the Cowboys the same way they were against the Packers but I don’t trust Mark Sanchez against any team that is above .500, especially getting only 3 points on the road.

Seattle +1 OVER San Francisco- They both have good records(7-4) despite being pretty underwhelming for most of the season and now face off against one another in one of the best rivalries in the NFL right now. I’m taking Seattle on the probably flawed basis that the 49ers have won 3 in a row(against the Rams, crappy Saints, and dysfunctional beyond all belief Washington) and are due for a loss.

Sunday Early Games

@Indianapolis -10 Washington- I doubted the Colts covering a big spread last week and it cost me and I am going to go with them here this week. I think the fact that there could be even more turmoil in the Washington media over Andrew Luck laying waste to Robert Griffin and separating the 1st and 2nd picks of the 2012 draft even further apart is too indicative of the season it has been for Washington for it to not happen.

Tennessee +6.5 OVER @Houston- I think Zach Mettenberger has played pretty solid since getting the starting job and I don’t think the lesser Ryan(Fitzpatrick) on the Texans covers this spread against the Titans, if it was less I would take the Texans but for them to be giving 6.5 is ridiculous.

Cincinnati -4 OVER @Tampa Bay- As much as I would love for Tampa Bay to officially throw their hat in the NFC South division ring with a third win here I can’t go against Daytime Dalton(Andy Dalton is atrocious when playing in any prime-time games. He thrives on the 1:00 EST slate when no one outside of the Ohio/Pennsylvania area is watching the game, don’t believe me? The Bengals are  7-1-1 during 1:00 EST games  and  0-2 in prime-time, getting demolished by the Patriots and Browns) when he only has to beat the lowly Buccaneers by 4 points to cover.

@Baltimore -4.5 OVER San Diego- Loser of this match-up is dealt a significant blow in the AFC playoff race. I’m taking the Ravens riding the momentum of their big win in New Orleans and the fact that they are incredible at home in the John Harbaugh era. They are 4-1 at home this year having outscored their opponents 130-53.

Carolina +2.5 OVER @Minnesota- I’m all in on anything to make the NFC South more of a crapshoot and I think these teams are even(if Carolina isn’t actually a little better). If Carolina can keep Cam Newton protected they easily cover this but if the Vikings get 3+ sacks they are going to crush the Panthers like every other team that has gotten pressure on Newton.

NY Giants -2.5 OVER @Jacksonville Jaguars- I don’t know why this line is so low but the the Giants(along with 20+ other teams in the NFL) can beat the Jaguars by 3.

@Pittsburgh -3 OVER New Orleans- This is the most ridiculous line of the week to me. Pittsburgh has been rolling for most of the year and the Saints are an absolute abomination on defense(and kinda offense some games) and the Steelers should have no problems crushing them.

@Buffalo -1.5 OVER Cleveland- I think the Bills are a better team and have a very strong defense. They have the #4 overall defense against total yardage and points allowed, are 8th in rushing yards allowed per game and 5th in passing yards allowed per game. Brian Hoyer has been struggling as of late and while he did enough to beat the Falcons(along with help from Mike Smith and how not to clock manage football games 101) I think the Bills will be a road block he can’t get through.

Oakland +7 OVER @St. Louis- I flip-flopped on this game the most out of any of them this week so I am just going to take the Raiders and the points and see what happens

Sunday Afternoon

Arizona -2.5 OVER @Atlanta- As much as I want to believe the Falcons will win the NFC South I think the Cardinals are a way better team and should take care of business in this one favored by less than 3.

New England +3 OVER @Green Bay- The game of the week. I think this one could go either way, the two best teams in football squaring off against each other. I am just going to take the 3 and sit back and watch some good football

Sunday Night

Denver -1 OVER @Kansas City- As much as Denver hasn’t looked quite like themselves, I don’t see them losing this game and I am taking the Broncos and prime-time Peyton Manning.

Monday Night

Miami -4.5 OVER @NY Jets- The Jets are terrible, this line is way too low and Miami just hung with Denver and needs a win. They are going to crush the Jets

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