NFL 2016 Week 1 Picks

Another year of football, another year of picking slightly over .500 against the spread. The lines are from Delaware, because they are the east coast book.

Season Opener

Panthers -3.5 OVER @Broncos
I don’t want to fall for the Panthers twice and lose but I think they are the better team 7 months later. Peyton Manning was composed during the playoffs, and Trevor Sieman is going to start the first game of his career. Cam and the Panthers should want to start the season off with a win against the team beat them in last year’s Super Bowl. Even though it’s on the road I’m going with Cam to get revenge Thursday.

Sunday September 11th

1:00 Games

Vikings -2.5 OVER @Titans
Bradford is ok enough to hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson 30 times and the let the defense make plays. Mariota and a new look Titans offense will have to click to beat one of the NFL’s best defenses. If it was -3 I wouldn’t take it but the Vikings can win this game by a field goal.

Bills +3.5 OVER @Baltimore
I think these teams are very similar, and I’m taking the points. The Ravens are usually a good team at home ,but they have a lot to prove in this home opener. Joe Flacco(ACL), Steve Smith Sr.(ACL) and Justin Forsett(arm) are all coming back from injury and yet to play Kenneth Dixon and Breshad Perriman are still hurt and have yet to prove themselves at the NFL level. The Bills offense could be deadly this year if their core can stay healthy. Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins all missed time last year. The Ravens were really hit by injury last year but I don’t think that bounce back to be a good team this year. They still need major pieces on both sides of the ball to regain form.

@Saints OVER PICK  Raiders
Too much Raiders love on the line. The Saints defense is atrocious but they still won 7 games last year, the same as the Raiders. Brees is still better than the rising Derek Carr and the Raiders, and the Saints are always tough at home.

Browns +4.5 OVER @Eagles
I’m taking the points, these are bottom barrel teams squaring off. The Browns look like they could have an exciting offense but are clearly rebuilding this year and the Eagles just traded for Dorial Green-Beckham to improve their team.

@Chiefs -7.5 OVER @San Diego
The Chiefs are one of the three best teams in the AFC this year and the Chargers are still a mess defensively. The Chiefs should win this one easily. The Chiefs defense is good all around and the Chargers need to show they can hang with a good team again.

Bears +6.5 OVER @Houston
The J.J Watt injury is concerning for Houston, and Brock Osweiler will have to learn to gel with the new offense. The Bears were a tough beat last year, they lost by less than a touchdown 5 times last year and should hang with the Texans for this game. I’ll take the points.

Packers -5.5 OVER @Jacksonville
The Packers are favored significantly and the Jags aren’t ready to compete with a team like the Packers yet. The Jaguars failed to beat a team over .500 last year.

@Jets +2.5 OVER Bengals
The Jets were 6-2 at home last year and this is a Bengals team likely without Tyler Eifert for the opener and Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell replacing Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones. The Bengals are a good team but I could see them dropping this one to a tough Jets team, wouldn’t do it the Jets were laying points though.

Tampa Bay +2.5 OVER @Atlanta
I like Tampa’s offense more than Atlanta’s to be honest and Tampa swept the Falcons last year. Jameis Winston is a better QB than Matt Ryan and Atlanta still has a terrible defense. Grabbing the points and the Bucs

Late Afternoon Games 4:00 EST

@Seattle -10.5 OVER Miami
You could talk up to two touchdowns on this one. Miami is going to get crushed, they are one of the worst teams in the league. Miami lost by 11+ in four out of five of their road losses last year.

Giants OVER PICK @Dallas
Eli Manning should be able to torch a depleted Dallas defense(3 players suspended to start the year) and take the win in Dallas. Dak Prescott has a lot to prove and clearly Delaware doesn’t trust him because they aren’t favoring Dallas.

Lions +3.5 OVER @Colts
I’m grabbing the extra half point and the Lions over the return of Luck. The Colts defense still gives me pause and the Lions defense can disrupt the passer. I think the Lions will be better with Stafford spreading the ball this year but they will need help from their RB’s to stay balanced and win.

Sunday Night Game

@Cardinals -6.5 OVER Patriots
I would be very surprised if Garappolo can pull out a win in this game. The Patriots defense would have to help him a lot and I don’t see it happening against the Cardinals.

Monday Night Games

@Washington +3.5 OVER Pittsburgh
I’m surprised the Steelers are favored by this much without Le’Veon Bell(home field may turn this game into a neutral site with how many Steeler transplants there are). However no Le’Veon Bell, no Martavis Bryant, no Ladarius Green(Jesse James is the starter) leaves Antonio Brown, DeAngelo Williams and Big Ben as the whole offense. I have a gut feeling Josh Norman is going bother Brown enough for the Skins offense to go to work against a bad secondary. Washington may be desperate at RB without Matt Jones but in this game that may be a good thing for them.

@49ers +2.5 OVER LA Rams
The 49ers won this game against the Vikings last year and I think they win it again this year. I’m really down on the Rams and think Chip Kelly can make the 49ers and interesting offense. I’d rather take Gabbert and the points over Jared Goff, because that’s what it’s come to.

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