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Week 8 Picks

Bengals -3.5 OVER Redskins
@Falcons -2.5 OVER Packers
Lions +2.5 OVER @Texans
@Saints +3.5 OVER Seattle
Patriots -7.5 OVER @Bills
Raiders PICK OVER @Tampa Bay
@Colts +2.5 OVER Chiefs
Chargers +5.5 OVER @Denver
@Carolina -2.5 OVER Arizona
Eagles +4.5 OVER @Dallas
Vikings -6.5 OVER @Bears

Week 3 Waiver Wire Pick-Ups

Another week in the books, more players reveal themselves to be fantasy relevant and roster worthy. It’s important to remember some of the guys who you didn’t want to take a chance on after one week but are still out there as well.

This Week’s Pick-Ups

Kyle Rudolph- He’s TE8 in standard scoring through two weeks with 7 catches for 96 yards and a TD. He has been the 6th most targeted tight end through two weeks as well. He’s still available in most leagues and should be owned.

Corey Coleman- He had a big game against the Ravens, racking up 100+ yards and 2 TD’s on 8 targets and showed that he can be a playmaker. He still trailed Terrelle Pryor in targets(Pryor had 10 targets) but is the more consistent player and the #1 receiver, while Pryor is more of a deep threat.

Dennis Pitta- After two broken hips and two lost seasons, he’s back. Pitta led the Ravens in targets, yards and receptions by hauling in 9 catches on 12 targets for 102 yards against the Browns.

Fozzy Whitaker/Charles Sims/Jerick McKinnon/Matt Asiata- They are on the fantasy radar after injuries to Jonathan Stewart, Doug Martin and Adrian Peterson respectively. Charles Sims stands out to me as the player with the most to gain if he becomes more of a volume play. He’s been a borderline PPR RB2/Flex and if he could get some rushing to balance his value as a receiving back he could be a legit RB2 in all formats. Whitaker takes over for Stewart and I don’t think he will out-perform Stewart, but is still a good short term option. His upside is limited by Cam Newton’s own rushing, but he could still carry volume like he did against the 49ers when he put up 131 total yards on 19 touches(16 carries for 100 yards and 3 catches on 4 targets for 31 yards) but also lost a fumble.
As for McKinnon and Asiata, I don’t think they get enough of a boost to really be fantasy relevant. Asiata had six games of 14+ carries in 2014(when Adrian Peterson was suspended) but failed to record 100+ yards in any contest. Asiata did score 9 TD’s that year though, including two games with 3 scores. McKinnon also had six games of 14+ carries in 2014 and had 100+ yards twice, but scored no TD’s that year. If I have to add one it’s Asiata, who could be find the endzone, and who I think will receive more of the load. McKinnon has a higher ceiling if he gets the volume though and should be a PPR flex back at least.

Martellus Bennett- Needs to be owned, is a legit Gronk handcuff.

Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake- They will split time due to the Arian Foster injury. Drake scored against the Patriots in week 2 but I expect Ajayi will play more in week 3. Worth a flier against the Browns this week.

Tyrell Williams- He’s stepped in to be the #2 receiver in San Diego and is a must own. After going for 71 yards on two catches in the opener he went for 3 catches for 61 yards and 44 of them came on a fantastic catch and run into the end zone. He tied Travis Benjamin in targets for what it’s worth.

Clive Walford- He had 6 catches for 50 yards and a TD against the Falcons, and with the current state of TE, that’s all you need to be on the radar.

On the Fantasy Radar/Deep League

Jamison Crowder- Another week, another 6 catches for Crowder. He leads all Redskins wide receivers in targets and receptions through two contests. He has more value in PPR due to his low yardage but if he can find the end zone now and then he’s a solid flex play.

Cole Beasley- He’s on Dak’s radar and that’s good enough for me right now. Beasley had another good game against the Redskins, catching 5 of his six targets for 75 yards. The thing that makes me think this is sustainable is that Beasley still leads the team in targets after two weeks, and no one else on the roster is close to him and Dez. He’s a good deep league pick-up and a WR3 in PPR.

Victor Cruz- The Giants have a three headed monster at WR right now and Cruz is the third head. OBJ is 7 targets ahead of Cruz, who is tied with Sterling Shepard for 2nd in targets with 12, converting 8 of those into catches for 125 yards and a TD in the first two weeks. He’s a solid flex going forward and could be more down the line.

Danny Amendola-Now’s the time to stash him away if you can wait two weeks until Tom Brady comes back. He scored two TD’s against the Dolphins and like Jimmy Garoppolo showed before going down, Amendola will be involved in this offense when it’s humming.

Kenny Britt- He’s the #1 receiver on perhaps the worst passing attack in the NFL. His 161 receiving yards through two games is 19th best among all receivers. He’s a solid deep league or PPR add like he was last year.

Adam Humphries- Is actually the #2 receiver in Tampa Bay. He has more catches and yards on two less targets than Vincent Jackson who is better in PPR.

 

Fantasy Football Week 1 RB Rankings

  1. Adrian Peterson
  2. Todd Gurley
  3. Ezekiel Elliot
  4. Lamar Miller
  5. Doug Martin
  6. Mark Ingram
  7. David Johnson
  8. Eddy Lacy
  9. Latavius Murray
  10. DeAngelo Williams
  11. Devonta Freeman
  12. Carlos Hyde
  13. Spencer Ware
  14. LeSean McCoy
  15. Rashad Jennings
  16. Ryan Matthews
  17. Frank Gore
  18. Christine Michael
  19. Jeremy Langford
  20. DeMarco Murray
  21. Matt Forte
  22. Melvin Gordon
  23. Giovanni Bernard
  24. Jeremy Hill
  25. Danny Woodhead
  26. Arian Foster
  27. Duke Johnson Jr.
  28. T.Y Yeldon
  29. James White
  30. Leggarette Blount
  31. Ameer Abdullah
  32. Derrick Henry
  33. Justin Forsett
  34. Charles Sims
  35. Rob Kelley

2016 Week 1 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Carson Palmer
  4. Matthew Stafford
  5. Kirk Cousins
  6. Derek Carr
  7. Russell Wilson
  8. Tyrod Taylor
  9. Andrew Luck
  10. Eli Manning
  11. Ben Roethlisberger
  12. Blake Bortles
  13. Dak Presscott
  14. Jameis Winston
  15. Joe Flacco
  16. Matt Ryan
  17. Robert Griffin
  18. Alex Smith
  19. Andy Dalton
  20. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  21. Marcus Mariota
  22. Jay Cutler
  23. Carson Wentz
  24. Brock Osweiler
  25. Phillip Rivers

2016 NFL Week 1 Use ‘Em or Lose ‘Em

Use ‘Em

QB

Tyrod Taylor/Joe Flacco- Taylor and Sammy Watkins(see below) should be able to take advantage of a Ravens defense that can get burnt in the secondary, and were a plus match-up for fantasy QB’s last year(9th most favorable match-up). I see Flacco being a solid volume play. Who knows if the Ravens will be able to run the ball. They are going in with Justin Forsett(who was cut then re-signed), Javorius Allen and Terrance West. I think the Bills get the jump on them and force Flacco to throw 35+ times playing catch-up. (Double Wrong on this one, they finished way down for QB’s)

Derek Carr- The Saints were the worst defense in the league by a mile last year and until they prove otherwise they should be treated as a must start against team for players. (Hit, Carr finished as the #9 fantasy QB this week)

Jameis Winston- Winston played well against Atlanta last year, throwing and running for a TD in both games against them last year. Tampa Bay won both of those games as well. I think Winston begins his second season with another steady top 15 week. (Hit, Winston finished as the 5th best fantasy QB this week)

Robert Griffin- The Eagles gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QB’s last season and Griffin has looked good in pre-season. He’s thrown a couple long TD’s and he may be a good deep league play against the Eagles this week. (wrong on this one, even for a flier)

Kirk Cousins- Cousins seems like a good volume play this week. Matt Jones injury has put the team in disarray at the RB position with just Chris Thompson and Undrafted Rob Kelley. Pittsburgh was actually a top 5 defense against the run last year and I expect the Skins to abandon the run early and just let it fly(40+ attempts). (wrong on this one)

RB

Rashad Jennings- Jennings ran for 52 yards and a TD in last year’s season opener against the Cowboys, he could do better this year. The Cowboys are thin in their front 7 with three starters suspended to start the season and gave up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing fantasy RB’s last year. (push, Jennings was the #29 fantasy RB this week, scoring 7.5 points)

Ryan Matthews- Carson Wentz is starting his first game and the Eagles will look to their running game to support him this week. Look at what just happened with Trevor Siemian and the Broncos last night! C.J Anderson just had 24 touches and that’s what I expect for Matthews this week. Matthews can produce when given the volume to do so. (hit, Matthews was the #13 fantasy RB that week)

Latavius Murray- The Saints gave up the 3rd most favorably match-up for opposing RB’s last year, and like mentioned above, a start all against. (hit, Murray was the #16 RB this week)

WR

Sammy Watkins- Watkins could have a monster day against the Ravens secondary and start 2016 where he ended 2015, as a top 10 WR. Watkins was in the top 5 among WR fantasy points in the second half of the season and really seemed to click with Tyrod Taylor. The Ravens were the 4th most generous team to opposing wideouts last year and Watkins should take advantage of that for a good game. (Miss, Watkins was held to under 50 yards and no score)

Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree- Saints defense was bad, really bad, historically bad last year. (Hit, Cooper was WR 13 this week and Crabtree was WR25 in standard scoring(both higher in PPR))

Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead- The Raiders were a plus match for opposing QB’s last year and these guys are Drew Brees top two targets. Cooks is the better player and more consistent player but Snead is a strong Flex. (Super Hit, Cooks led all fantasy WR’s this week and Snead was 4th)

Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb- The Packers are better than the young Jaguars and should make that clear this week. Aaron Rodgers is going to carve them and get this offense back into 2014 form. (Double miss, Nelson salvaged his day with a TD but was still outside the top 25 WR’s and Cobb was way outside.)

Terrelle Pryor- Speaking of RG3 completing long TD’s in the pre-season. Pryor has looked really good for the Browns at WR and is starting next to Corey Coleman to start the season against a bad Eagles secondary. There could be worse deep league fliers. (hit, Pryor caught 3 passes for 68 yards)

TE

Coby Fleener- Remember last year when the Raiders didn’t know how to cover any tight ends? Yeah that could continue hear with Drew Brees throwing to one of his new weapons this year (mega miss, 1 catch for 5 yards)

Jordan Reed- In case there is any hesitation because of the Steelers let me make it clear that Reed is a week-in week0out starter at TE like Gronk. Reed is the leader of the Washington passing attack and should capitalize against a weak Steelers secondary. (miss, but only to what was expected. He finished with 60ish yards this week)

D/ST

Seattle- Miami has a lot of question marks on offense and Seattle is at home. Stick with work your best players in week 1. (hit, they were the 4th best defense this week)

Vikings- The Titans gave up the most points to opposing fantasy defenses last year, and gave up a sack in every game except one last season. The Vikings defense will look to feast on a bad offensive line and a team that has lacked consistency on offense. Mariota was in and out of the line-up last year and they have a completely new set of skill position players save for Delanie Walker. Vikings will need to lean on their defense with Sam Bradford making his first start for the team. Top 5 defense this week. (bit hit, they scored 2 TD’s and led all defenses this week)

Cardinals- Jimmy G doesn’t scare me enough to not start what is going to be a top 5 defense this year. (miss, they had an average week)

Chiefs- The Chiefs demolished the Chargers last year. They held the Chargers to 6 points TOTAL in the season series last year. I expect that to continue as the Chiefs try and separate in the AFC West this year. (big miss, they scored 0 points)

Lose ‘Em

QB

Andy Dalton/Ryan Fitzpatrick- I think this game is more defensive than people think. The Bengals will be going into this game without Tyler Eifert and depth at receiver(Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd replacing Marvin Jones and Mohammad Sanu). The Jets defense was really good at home last year, only allowing an opponent to score over 20 points once. The Bengals defense gave up the 2nd least amount of points per game to opponents last year and their depth in the secondary will try to contain Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. (push, Dalton finished as QB 14 and Fitzpatrick finished as QB 17 this week)

Phillip Rivers- Rivers didn’t throw a TD pass against the Chiefs last year, scoring under 10 fantasy points in each game. (Hit, Rivers finished outside the top 20 at QB this week)

Brock Osweiler- The Bears are going to be better than people think defensively and I don’t trust Osweiler to come in and be a meaningful fantasy QB right away. (push, Osweiler finished as QB 15 this week)

RB

Arian Foster- Not trusting him in first game back against Seattle. (Hit, Foster finished outside the top 20 RB’s in standard)

DeMarco Murray- Not trusting him in his first game as a Titan against the Vikings defense. (miss, Murray finished as RB 8 this week, due to 2 receiving TD’s. He had 77 total yards though)

Robert Kelley/Matt Jones- Pittsburgh was a top 5 rush defense last year and I don’t think either will run effectively. (big hit, they were useless this week)

Jeremy Hill- I don’t think he scores, or finds much success against the Jets defense, who ranked 2nd in rush defense last season. (hit, Hill finished outside the top 20 RB’s)

Matt Forte- The Bengals were the 7th best team against the run last year and I think Forte won’t get enough while splitting with Bilal Powell do have a good game here. (miss, Forte was RB12 this week)

WR

A.J Green- Green opens up the year with a trip to Revis Island. It may not mean as much as it used to but it should still be a tough matchup for the Green. (huge stupid miss, Green was WR2 this week)

Julian Edelman- Between him coming back from injury and Jimmy G getting his first start against a tough Cardinals defense I think Edelman will be have a minimal impact this game. (hit for standard, Edelman had 7 catches for 66 yards)

Jarvis Landry- The Seahawks defense is still a rock, and one of the toughest in the league against opposing WR’s. You’re better off trying Landry next week. (hit for standard, Landry had 7 catches for 50ish yards)

Jeremy Maclin- San Diego had Maclin’s number last year. In both games last year he had 9 catches for 97 yards. The Chargers were the 4th hardest team for opposing WR’s last year and only gave up 11 TD’s to opposing WR’s last year. (miss, Maclin was WR14 this week)

Stefon Diggs- Not trusting him with Bradford in the first week. (miss, Diggs had 100+ yards)

TE

Zach Ertz- Not trusting him as much as I would have with Bradford as I am with Wentz’s debut. (push, Ertz finished as TE15 this week)

Antonio Gates- Remember how the Chiefs destroyed the Chargers last year? Yeah… (hit Gates had 20 yards and no scores this week)

D/ST

Patriots- Arizona could be the best team the Patriots play all regular season. Staying away here. (hit the Pats defense finished outside the top 15 defenses this week)

Steelers- The Skins should throw a ton on them and put up points/yards. I like them more going forward. (hit, the Steelers finished outside the top 15 defenses this week)

Raiders- They are a sleeper defense for some but I would stay away from Drew Brees and the Raiders defense in week 1. (big hit, Raiders were the 3rd worst defense this week)

Lions- The Colts will be a better offense with Andrew Luck healthy. The Lions could generate some sacks, but will get taken to task by Luck enough for a bad day. (big hit, Lions were 4th worst defense this week)

Finished week 22-16-6 with predictions

2016 Tier 1 Fantasy Football Players

So the Tier 1 player has been a concept of mine for a while now but for potential new eyes or just to more firmly establish it here’s an explanation. Every year, pre-draft, there are a select group of players who everyone drafting KNOWS are going to be good. It’s been guys like Antonio Brown last year, Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Julio Jones, Gronk and so on. Guys who are building blocks to a successful team, 1st round picks and players who are as close to a guarantee as you can get. Here are the players I think fit this this criteria this year. The Tier 1.A is a drop-off from guys who are Tier 1 but who are not that big a drop-off or who I could consider making the leap to top level production.

QB

  1. Cam Newton
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Ben Roethlisberger
  5. Aaron Rodgers

Tier 1.A

  1. Blake Bortles
  2. Tom Brady
  3. Carson Palmer
  4. Andy Dalton
  5. Kirk Cousins

RB

  1. Adrian Peterson
  2. Doug Martin
  3. Le’Veon Bell(nervously)
  4. Devonta Freeman

RB Tier 1.A

  1. Todd Gurley
  2. David Johnson(nervously)
  3. Jamaal Charles (also nervously)
  4. Lamar Miller

WR

  1. Julio Jones
  2. Antonio Brown
  3. DeAndre Hopkins
  4. Odell Beckham Jr.
  5. A.J Green

WR Tier 1.A

  1. Allen Robinson
  2. Brandon Marshall(only because of QB situation)
  3. Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb
  4. Doug Baldwin (very nervously)

TE

Gronk

TE Tier 1.A

  1. Jordan Reed
  2. Greg Olsen
  3. Delanie Walker
  4. Tyler Eifert
  5. Travis Kelce