Tag Archives: The Spread

Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread

After going 6-9 last week I’m 39-53 on the year. Time to make or break or else I’m going to be worse than a coin flip.

Thursday Night Game

Bears +7.5 OVER @Packers

Sunday Morning Game

Giants -2.5 OVER Rams(in London)

Sunday 1:00 EST(God’s Time)

Ravens PICK OVER @JETS

Saints +6.5 OVER @Chiefs

Vikings -2.5 OVER @Eagles

@Lions -1.5 OVER Redskins

@Bengals -9.5 OVER Browns

Raiders PICK OVER @Jaguars

Colts +3.5 OVER @Titans

Bills -3.5 OVER @Dolphins

Sunday Afternoon Games

Chargers +6.5 OVER @Atlanta

@49ers +1.5 OVER Tampa Bay

Patriots -7.5 OVER @Steelers

Sunday Night Game

Seattle +1.5 OVER @Arizona

Monday Night Game

Houston +7.5 OVER @Denver

Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread

After going 8-6 last week I’m at 33-44 for the year. As always the lines are from Delaware.

Thursday Night Game

Broncos -3.5 OVER @San Diego- I think the Broncos kill off the Chargers season here. While the Chargers’ blunders have blown three leads in the 4th quarter I think they will flat out lose here.

Sunday 1:00 EST(God’s Time)

Panthers -3.5 OVER @Saints(if Cam plays)

Steelers -7.5 OVER @Miami

@Patriots -9.5 OVER Bengals

Jaguars +2.5 OVER @Chicago

@Lions -3.5 OVER Rams

49ers +8.5 OVER @Bills

@Titans -7.5 OVER Browns- The Browns might be onto their 4th QB this year with Kessler getting hurt.

@Giants -2.5 OVER Ravens- Eli over Flacco in a game of inconsistent QB’s.

Eagles -2.5 OVER @Washington- Washington is playing sloppy with the ball and the Eagles will make them pay for their turnovers.

Sunday Afternoon Games

Cowboys +4.5 OVER @Packers- Green Bay isn’t as good as their record shows, the Cowboys will run over them.

@Raiders PICK OVER Chiefs

Falcons +6.5 OVER @Seattle- They just covered and won in Denver and I’m taking the points again here.

Sunday Night

Colts +3.5 OVER @Houston

Monday Night

Jets +8.5 OVER @Arizona

 

 

 

Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

On twitter I picked the Patriots, so starting week 3 off with a win. All lines are from Delaware as usual. I’m 15-19 going into this week, but the first few weeks are always a bit rough.

Sunday 1:00 EST

Browns +9.5 OVER @Miami- The Dolphins should’t be favored by this many points. They put up good junk time second half stats last week but the game against the Patriots had already been decided early. Cleveland looked solid against the Ravens, but Josh McCown and Corey Coleman are both hurt and going to miss this game. I see Miami winning but I don’t see them blowing out Cleveland because of problems of their own.

@Panthers -7.5 OVER Vikings- The Panthers are going to take advantage of the crappy Vikings offensive line and should beat them. The Vikings could try and come back like the 49ers did last year to cover in the end but I don’t see it happening.

Detroit +7.5 OVER @Green Bay- Green Bay only beat the Jaguars by 5 points, what makes me thing they will beat the Lions by 8? They have a lot of problems of offense right now and I think Detroit beats them outright.

@Bengals -3.5 OVER Broncos- Let’s see Trevor Siemian play on the road.

Cardinals -4.5 OVER @Bills- The Bills are free falling and the Cardinals just tore apart Tampa Bay. The west coast team playing a  1:00 game on the East coast worries me a little bit but not enough to go with the Bills.

@Jaguars +1.5 OVER Ravens- Saying the Jaguars need this more sounds stupid but it’s true. They won’t come back from 0-3. Meanwhile the Ravens may be the good bad team of the AFC. They beat the Bills and Browns(after trailing 20-0 to the Browns) and I’m not really impressed.

@Titans -1.5 OVER Raiders- The west coast team playing in a east coast city at 1:00 gets me here. These are two young teams trying to figure things out. I think the Titans surprise a lot of people and get the win here.

Afternoon Games

49ers +9.5 OVER Seattle- This is the strangest line of the year for me so far. Seattle has scored just 15 points this season and is favored by 10. I’m not seeing it, and I think the bookmakers are giving them too much respect. The 49ers shut out the Rams two weeks ago, the same Rams team that held the Seahawks to 3 points last week.

Steelers -3.5 OVER @Eagles- The Steelers are a better team than the Eagles. It’s nice that Carson Wentz beat RG3 and then Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer to get to 2-0 but this is his first real test in the NFL.

Jets +3.5 OVER @Kansas City- I feel like the Jets just played this game against the Bengals two weeks ago. It’s going to be a tight game between two of the better AFC teams and it’ll come down to the last possession. The Jets are a healthier team right now and that’s why I am going to go with them.

Chargers +2.5 OVER @Colts- The Colts are a train wreck right now and Phillip Rivers is going to roll them. Chargers should be favored in this game tbh.

@Tampa Bay -5.5 OVER Rams- The Rams still haven’t scored a TD this season.

Sunday Night Game

Bears +7.5 OVER @Dallas- The Bears won’t have Jay Cutler for this game but Dallas shouldn’t be favored by 7 in a Dak Presscott(who is yet to throw for a TD) vs Brian Hoyer match-up.

Monday Night

@Saints -2.5 OVER Atlanta- The Saints are due a win and they’ll get one here. They have lost both games this season by a combined total of 4 points.

NFL Week 17 Quick Picks Against the Spread

I’m 112-127 on the season after going 5-11 last week. Lines are from footballlocks.com

Sunday Early Games

Indianapolis -7 OVER @Tennessee- I’m going against all teams with 3 wins or less because they are all tanking to lock up their seed

@Baltimore -13 OVER Cleveland- Not taking any 3rd string QB’s this week

@Minnesota -7 OVER Bears-The Vikings have covered most of the year and should here.

Dallas -5.5 OVER @Washington- If the Dallas starters play they cover, if they don’t Washington will win

San Diego +1 OVER @Kansas City- No Alex Smith means goodbye KC

NY Jets +6 OVER @Miami- Rex’s last hurrah

@NY Giants -2.5 OVER Philadelphia

@New England -5 OVER Buffalo

@Houston -9.5 OVER Jacksonville

New Orleans -4 OVER @Tampa Bay

Sunday Afternoon

Oakland +14 OVER @Denver- If Denver rests their starters Oakland covers, if not Denver covers

@San Francisco -6 OVER Arizona

@Seattle -12.5 OVER St. Louis- They clinch the one seed and we are back where we were last year.

Carolina +3.5 OVER @Atlanta- Cam has been a man on a mission in December with two wins and 6 TD’s against just one pick.

Detroit +7.5 OVER @Green Bay- too many points in what should be a close game.

Sunday Night

Cincinnati +3.5 OVER @Pittsburgh- If the Bengals can beat the Broncos in prime time I think they can cover against the Steelers in prime time.

NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

After going 10-6 last week I am now 98-109 against the spread for the year, time to keep plugging away and have another good week this week. As usual spreads are from http://www.footballlocks.com/

Thursday Night

@St. Louis -4.5 OVER Arizona- The Rams are coming off consecutive shutouts against the Raiders and Washington and the Cardinals offense has been reeling since losing Carson Palmer. I’m taking the Rams because I don’t feel it’s enough points to take Drew Stanton

Sunday Early Games

Oakland +10 OVER @Kansas City- This line is WAY too high for a a Chiefs team that can’t throw the ball and lost to Oakland the last time around.

@Baltimore -13.5 OVER Jacksonville- Baltimore at home is 4-2 this year and have won every game at home this year by at least 14 points, which would be enough to cover this spread, I like the Ravens to put up a bunch of points in this one against a bad Jaguars team.

Cincinnati +1 OVER @Cleveland- The Bengals as underdogs against Johnny Manziel in his NFL debut? yes please

@New England -7.5 OVER Miami- New England should be able to dispose of this struggling Miami team and end their playoff hopes at Foxborough, where they are undefeated this year.

@Atlanta +2.5 OVER Pittsburgh- If Julio Jones plays Atlanta Covers if he sits they don’t, it’s that simple.

@Carolina -3 OVER Tampa Bay- Anything to keep the NFC South a 3 team race between sub .500 teams

Green Bay -5 OVER @Buffalo- This line seems really low to me, and Green Bay is the best team in the league and deserves a higher line than this.

@NY Giants -6.5 OVER Washington- Washington is terrible and this line isn’t nearly high enough.

Houston +6.5 OVER @Indianapolis- I feel another cover against the Colts. Andrew Luck has been playing pretty sloppy recently, averaging two turnovers per game since coming off the bye and I think the Texans can use that to their advantage to cover and maybe even win this game.

Sunday Late Games

NY Jets +1.5 OVER @Tennessee- The Titans are 0-2 this year when favored in games and I feel like this is a big Chris Johnson revenge game.

Denver -4 OVER @San Diego- This line seems low to me, Denver may not have blown away anyone in their win against Buffalo last week, but they still beat them by 7, and San Diego wishes their defense was as good as the Bills’.

@Seattle -10 OVER San Francisco- The fact that the 49ers went from being a 10 point favorite to a 10 point underdog in a week says a lot about how much this team is struggling, I’m taking the suddenly good again Seahawks at home.

@Detroit -8 OVER Minnesota- Detroit is 5-2 against the spread at home and now that their offense is clicking I think they should cover again against Minnesota.

Sunday Night Game

Dallas +3.5 OVER @Philadelphia- Dallas is 5-1 against the spread on the road this season and I think they find a way to run the ball in this game against the Eagles and win or keep it close.

Monday Night Game

New Orleans -3 OVER @Chicago- Anything to keep the NFC South crazy.

NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

After crapping the bed and going 4-12 last week I am 88-103 on the season. As usual spreads are from footballocks.com

Thursday Night

Dallas -3.5 OVER Chicago- This is a must win for Dallas if they intend to make the playoffs. Their next two games are against the Eagles and Colts and they can’t afford to lose this “easier” game. Also the Bears defense is atrocious and I don’t trust Jay Cutler, especially at home where they have only beaten Tampa Bay and the Vikings, each score 21-13 in unconvincing fashion.

Sunday Early Games

@Minnesota -6 OVER NY Jets- I’m taking the Vikings, the Jets are really bad and the Vikings just disposed of a really bad team by a bunch of points at home last week, I think they do it again here.

Indianapolis -4 OVER @Cleveland- You’re telling me I can get Indianapolis favored by only 4 against Cleveland and their QB turmoil? Yes please

NY Giants PK OVER @Tennessee- I think Tennessee is tanking more than the Giants are tanking and tank more in this one and lose? Idk both these teams are so bad I guess I’ll take the Giants

Baltimore +3 OVER @Miami- Miami showed nothing in their pathetic win against the Jets Monday night and Baltimore should bounce back after losing a game they mostly controlled last Sunday. Baltimore seems to me like the more likely playoff team than Miami, and in a game which playoff-esque complications I think the Ravens should prevail.

@Cincinnati -3 OVER Pittsburgh- When you’re out on the Bengals, take them, when you’re in on the Bengals go against them. After putting up a stinker against Tampa Bay(in a game they should have lost if not for the incredibly stupid penalty that knocked the Buccaneers out of field goal position) people are sour on the Bengals again, so I am in on them, also Pittsburgh has been all over the place this season(losses to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Jets, Big Ben throwing for 12 TD’s in 2 weeks and their defense inconsistent.).

Carolina +9.5 OVER @New Orleans- Every time New Orleans gets a big line after playing solid the week before they blow it, I’m not trusting them this week, even against a Carolina team that looks like it has packed it in this year.

Tampa Bay +9.5 OVER @Detroit- Between this game and the Carolina/New Orleans game one of the underdogs is going to cover if not both, I don’t trust either team with that high of a spread.

St.Louis -2.5 OVER @Washington- Washington is a flaming train-wreck and I think with the current state of affairs they actually have a home-field disadvantage(disgruntled fans booing the team early). Also St. Louis has had their number in recent years and always seems to beat them, and if I can take this rolling Rams team with just 2.5 I’ll take them.

Houston -5 OVER @Jacksonville- Houston just throttled the Titans and I think they can go and keep their(unlikely) post-season dreams alive with a win over Jacksonville by a handful of points.

Sunday Afternoon Games

Seattle +1.5 OVER @Philadelphia- This will be Mark Sanchez’s biggest test as the starter of the Eagles. Seattle has played better defense recently(albeit against Drew Stanton and Colin Kaepernick, so not great QB led teams) and I STILL don’t trust Sanchez , even if the spread is this low.

San Francisco -8 OVER @Oakland- I trusted Oakland with the points last week, I will not be doing that again.

@Arizona -1 OVER Kansas City- I saw Kansas City play last week and it was awful. Alex Smith cannot throw the ball, whether it’s because of a lack of protection or his known limitations as a passer, or his jv level(outside of Dwayne Bowe) receiving corps. Arizona led Steven Jackson run on them last week but if they limit Jamaal Charles and the running game their is now way they don’t win this game.

@Denver -10 OVER Buffalo- Kyle Orton doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Peyton Manning, that simple.

Sunday Night Game

New England -3.5 OVER San Diego- New England always plays better after a loss, and San Diego escaped with a win last week and I don’t think they do that again this week against stiffer competition

Monday Night Game

@Green Bay -12 OVER Atlanta- Aaron Rodgers at home has stats like he is playing Madden on rookie, their is no question I am taking the Packers here.

NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

After having another subpar week with my picks last week(I went 6-9 against the spread) I am at 84-91 for the season. I have to crank these out(along with all my previews for this week) extra early(or on time) because of the 3 games we have on Thanksgiving this week. As usual spreads are from footballocks.com

Thanksgiving Games

Chicago +7 OVER @Detroit- Detroit has struggled so mightily on offense(24 points or less in every game since week 2 is the popular stat here) I just can’t lay this many points with them, despite how crappy the Bears have been.

@Dallas -3 Philadelphia- The Eagles have beaten the Titans, Texans and Panthers handily with Mark Sanchez at the helm and were destroyed by the Packers. I don’t know if the Eagles will get quite obliterated by the Cowboys the same way they were against the Packers but I don’t trust Mark Sanchez against any team that is above .500, especially getting only 3 points on the road.

Seattle +1 OVER San Francisco- They both have good records(7-4) despite being pretty underwhelming for most of the season and now face off against one another in one of the best rivalries in the NFL right now. I’m taking Seattle on the probably flawed basis that the 49ers have won 3 in a row(against the Rams, crappy Saints, and dysfunctional beyond all belief Washington) and are due for a loss.

Sunday Early Games

@Indianapolis -10 Washington- I doubted the Colts covering a big spread last week and it cost me and I am going to go with them here this week. I think the fact that there could be even more turmoil in the Washington media over Andrew Luck laying waste to Robert Griffin and separating the 1st and 2nd picks of the 2012 draft even further apart is too indicative of the season it has been for Washington for it to not happen.

Tennessee +6.5 OVER @Houston- I think Zach Mettenberger has played pretty solid since getting the starting job and I don’t think the lesser Ryan(Fitzpatrick) on the Texans covers this spread against the Titans, if it was less I would take the Texans but for them to be giving 6.5 is ridiculous.

Cincinnati -4 OVER @Tampa Bay- As much as I would love for Tampa Bay to officially throw their hat in the NFC South division ring with a third win here I can’t go against Daytime Dalton(Andy Dalton is atrocious when playing in any prime-time games. He thrives on the 1:00 EST slate when no one outside of the Ohio/Pennsylvania area is watching the game, don’t believe me? The Bengals are  7-1-1 during 1:00 EST games  and  0-2 in prime-time, getting demolished by the Patriots and Browns) when he only has to beat the lowly Buccaneers by 4 points to cover.

@Baltimore -4.5 OVER San Diego- Loser of this match-up is dealt a significant blow in the AFC playoff race. I’m taking the Ravens riding the momentum of their big win in New Orleans and the fact that they are incredible at home in the John Harbaugh era. They are 4-1 at home this year having outscored their opponents 130-53.

Carolina +2.5 OVER @Minnesota- I’m all in on anything to make the NFC South more of a crapshoot and I think these teams are even(if Carolina isn’t actually a little better). If Carolina can keep Cam Newton protected they easily cover this but if the Vikings get 3+ sacks they are going to crush the Panthers like every other team that has gotten pressure on Newton.

NY Giants -2.5 OVER @Jacksonville Jaguars- I don’t know why this line is so low but the the Giants(along with 20+ other teams in the NFL) can beat the Jaguars by 3.

@Pittsburgh -3 OVER New Orleans- This is the most ridiculous line of the week to me. Pittsburgh has been rolling for most of the year and the Saints are an absolute abomination on defense(and kinda offense some games) and the Steelers should have no problems crushing them.

@Buffalo -1.5 OVER Cleveland- I think the Bills are a better team and have a very strong defense. They have the #4 overall defense against total yardage and points allowed, are 8th in rushing yards allowed per game and 5th in passing yards allowed per game. Brian Hoyer has been struggling as of late and while he did enough to beat the Falcons(along with help from Mike Smith and how not to clock manage football games 101) I think the Bills will be a road block he can’t get through.

Oakland +7 OVER @St. Louis- I flip-flopped on this game the most out of any of them this week so I am just going to take the Raiders and the points and see what happens

Sunday Afternoon

Arizona -2.5 OVER @Atlanta- As much as I want to believe the Falcons will win the NFC South I think the Cardinals are a way better team and should take care of business in this one favored by less than 3.

New England +3 OVER @Green Bay- The game of the week. I think this one could go either way, the two best teams in football squaring off against each other. I am just going to take the 3 and sit back and watch some good football

Sunday Night

Denver -1 OVER @Kansas City- As much as Denver hasn’t looked quite like themselves, I don’t see them losing this game and I am taking the Broncos and prime-time Peyton Manning.

Monday Night

Miami -4.5 OVER @NY Jets- The Jets are terrible, this line is way too low and Miami just hung with Denver and needs a win. They are going to crush the Jets